Over the years, the anonymous creator of the popular stock-to-flow (S2F) bitcoin price model Plan B has become a very well-known bitcoin influencer with 1.8 million followers on Twitter. However, Plan B and its price model have been heavily criticized after the S2F price model failed to materialize and fell well short of its 2022 price target. On Tuesday, ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin condemned the S2F price model, saying that “financial models that give people a false sense of certainty” can be “harmful” and should be ridiculed.
Plan B’s stock-to-flow bitcoin price model isn’t as popular as it once was
This week, some specific price models were teased as people noticed that Bitcoin’s price didn’t follow “Rainbow” price indicator and Plan B’s famous stock-to-flow pricing modelThe pseudonymous creator of the S2F model caught the attention of the crypto community a few years ago on March 22, 2019, when he published an article. editorial Known as “Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity”. When things turned bullish in late 2020 and 2021, Plan B’s statements and price models were respected, and at times, analysts’ forecasts were correct.
In January 2021, Bitcoin (bitcoin) USD value seems to follow the S2F model and the then Plan B Say: “The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model [is] On the track…like clockwork. ” By the end of June 2021, Plan B gives a renew About his “worst case of 2021”. The analyst said: “Bitcoin’s sub-$34,000 price was triggered by Elon Musk’s energy FUD and China’s mining crackdown. There’s a more fundamental reason we’re seeing June or even July My worst-case scenario for 2021 (based on price/on-chain): >47K in Aug, >43K in Sep, >63K in Oct, >98K in Nov, >135K in Dec.
Prediction is hard, especially the future. EMH even said that predicting financial markets is impossible.For those still interested in models, here are 5 bitcoin Valuation model:
– Time (log regression, rainbow) and S2F too high
– UTXO/TX too low
– Difficulty/Mining_cost is currently the best pic.twitter.com/9FYCbWmbp7
— PlanB (@$100 Trillion) June 21, 2022
After releasing his “worst-case” forecast, August, September and October appear to be on target for the Plan B forecast.However, although bitcoin An all-time high of $69,000 per unit was set on Nov. 10, but it didn’t come close to the $98,000 range, and December wasn’t even close. Fast forward to the end of the first quarter of 2022, bitcoinThe price of BTC continues to move lower, and currently, the price of the leading crypto asset is off the radar compared to the S2F chart. Plan B and his price model criticize in the past and known Bitcoin advocate. For example, Steve Barbour, owner of Upstream Data, once tweet:
The S2F model is how used car salesmen put Bitcoin to the moon.
Buterin says ‘stock-to-flow really doesn’t look good right now’
More recently, Plan B’s mode has been mocked and taunted more violently.Ethereum advocate Anthony Sasano tweet Predictions on the S2F model and Plan B. “The ‘Stock to flow’ model was such a huge failure that Plan B should have deleted his account,” Sassano said. “But he won’t, because sadly he still has 1.8 million followers eating all his hopium crap every day.” The tweet then caught the attention of Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who also posted on the topic commented.
“Stock-to-flow really doesn’t look good right now,” Buterin Say Retweeted Sasano’s statement. “I know gloating and things like that are rude, but I think financial models that give people a false sense of certainty and expecting numbers to increase are harmful and they deserve all the ridicule. Remember who’s behind it S2F, who laughed at it when it seemed to accurately describe a trendline,” Ethereum co-founder Add to.
Plan B responds, analyst’s fans tell him to ‘keep posting – I love the point you bring’
Plan B responded to Buterin’s statement by retweeting his tweet on Tuesday, with some criticism of the “failed project.”
“After the crash, some people are looking for scapegoats for their failed projects or bad investment decisions,” Plan B Say. “Not only newbies, [also] The “leader” becomes the victim of blaming others and playing the victim. Remember those who blame others, and those who are strong after a car accident. “Plan B also Retweet An individual who wrote “Ethereum’s ‘ultrasonic’ tokenomics is entirely S2F based”. Plan B also explained later in the day that he shared his analysis and graphs for free.
“So I share my analysis and graphs for free,” Plan B wrote Tuesday. “Never tell anyone what/when/how/how much to buy or buy. Now covid, China bans, Russia wars and inflation have put all assets including bitcoin in the grips… Somehow some people put their Blame me for investment decisions? Lame.”
She is 10 years old, but according to PlanB
– Crypto Graffiti (@cryptograffiti) June 21, 2022
As mentioned above, S2F has always been considered wrong, but the “rainbow” price indicator has also been mocked over the past two weeks.In a similar fashion, the rainbow graph does not contain bitcoin, but some say they can add a few extra purple lines to get the chart working again. “I created a new and improved model for the rainbow graph,” Twitter account @Levelsdennis tweet.
Meanwhile, some Bitcoin enthusiasts expressed sympathy for Plan B and told him to keep working. “Indeed. Please keep posting — I love the perspective you bring,” the popular Twitter account known as @BTC_archive, which has 1 million followers, told the anonymous analyst.
What do you think of the recent criticism of Plan B’s stock-to-flow Bitcoin price model? Let us know what you think about this topic in the comments section below.
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