U.S. intelligence sharing convinces allies that Russia poses a threat to Ukraine

The EU and NATO allies support the Biden administration’s assessment that Russia may be prepared to Invaded UkraineAfter the United States shared unprecedented intelligence prepared by Moscow’s military.

Weeks of diplomatic contacts between the United States and European governments, supported by the usual sharing of intelligence with its closest allies, helped persuade some previously skeptical capitals, including Berlin, that the Kremlin may soon order its troops to enter. Ukraine. This effort has inspired support for the need for strong threats of sanctions to deter the Kremlin.

U.S. President Joe Biden Will warn European defense and security officials told the Financial Times that Russia’s Vladimir Putin opposed any invasion at a video summit scheduled to be held on Tuesday, and NATO and the European Union fully supported retaliatory measures.

An official in the Biden administration said on Friday that Russia may plan to invade Ukraine “as early as early 2022,” adding that half of the military units involved in such offensives have arrived near the Ukrainian border in the past month.

The United States’ decision to share its intelligence and issue public warnings among European countries so extensively stems from Washington’s hope that by consolidating Western support for sanctions, it will emphasize to Moscow the cost of any aggression. The details of threats of sanctions and other countermeasures are still under discussion.

The Kremlin has always denied it Plan to invade Ukraine He also accused the U.S. and NATO of growing strain on Kyiv’s support.

Officials familiar with the briefing of the document told the Financial Times that the US intelligence report described Russia’s military deployment at the Ukrainian border, evidence of possible attack preparations, and an analysis of the Kremlin’s expected intentions, bilaterally and collectively with NATO member states, and through the European Union. Sharing of diplomatic channels.

An official described the amount of materials and details shared by the 29 other NATO allies as “very comprehensive.”

The four officials stated that some European allies initially did not want to regard the US claims of preparing for an invasion as credible, resulting in an abnormal level of intelligence sharing.

The disclosure of previous secret details began in early November before the NATO ministerial meeting last week, which was followed by discussions on Ukraine. Intelligence helps to shift the conversation from warning whether it is correct to how best to stop it.

“Many allies do not believe that something serious is happening,” another official said. “We are surprised by this [intelligence] Gap-how and why the United States sees things we haven’t seen. “

“If I have to compare the sound clips before this information, then [at the Nato meeting] In Riga, there has been a major shift towards the American version of things,” the official added.

Biden said on Friday that he is preparing a set of “comprehensive and meaningful measures” to stop any Russian aggression.

Speaking of the upcoming phone call with Putin, he said: “We have known Russia’s actions for a long time, and I expect that we will have a long discussion.”

The United States stated that Russia is preparing to deploy 100 battalion tactical teams at various strategic locations along the Ukrainian border, with a total of approximately 175,000 military personnel, supported by 100,000 reserve forces.

Russian armored forces headed to Crimea in 2014 © Bulent Doruk/Anadolu Agency/Getty

Russian troops invaded Georgia in 2008, and in 2014 invaded and annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. Since then, the Kremlin has always supported pro-Moscow separatists who have fought a seven-year war with Ukrainian government forces in the Donbass region, which borders Ukraine. Russia.

In April, Russia quickly moved 100,000 soldiers from the rest of the country to the border with Ukraine without prior warning, along with tanks, aircraft, navy, field hospitals, and electronic warfare equipment. Creepy Kiev And Western countries. Some of these troops eventually returned to their base.

Some EU countries and NATO member states that have called for dialogue with Moscow instead of confrontation have degraded the situation as evidence that Russia will not start a full-scale invasion unless it is provoked. But American intelligence on recent troop deployments has changed this analysis.

The United States and the European Union have “the same consensus information…. The third European official stated that in order to show the price Putin will pay for any actions against Ukraine. “Some European countries that have not read Putin’s actions [in the same way that the US was] As far as intent is concerned, it is now. “

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