© Reuters.The love for Trump led to a baby boom in Republican counties in 2016
(Bloomberg) – After former President Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016, mothers in Republican-leaning counties saw a baby boost over their Democratic counterparts, indicating that partisanship is following people into the bedroom.
According to a paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research, in the year after Trump’s victory, the fertility rate of Republican-leaning counties has increased relative to that of Democratic-leaning counties. This is equivalent to the 1.1 percentage point difference between the author’s optimism about the election results and the annual birth rate in Republican counties, or about 23,000 prolific babies.
In the next two years when data is available, this effect has continued.
More importantly, in counties with strong partisanship, the gap is even greater. According to the authors, Gordon Dahl and William Mullins of the University of California, San Diego, and Lu Runjing of the University of Alberta, the fertility gap between extreme Republican and extreme Democratic counties is 2.6 percentage points.
The author writes that the fertility rate of Hispanic mothers is also significantly lower than that of non-Hispanic mothers, and points to some harsh remarks made by the former president on immigration during the campaign.
In some cases, despite the data complicated by the beginning of the Great Recession, the fertility rate was not affected by partisanship after the victory of former President Barack Obama in 2008. The author found some evidence that after the victory of former President George W. Bush in 2000, the relative fertility rate in Democratic counties declined.
The states with the highest birth rates shortly after the election were Utah, Alaska, and Dakota.
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