A small-scale demonstration of water shortages in a remote province started two weeks ago, but like other protests in Iran in recent years, the outbreak has now spread to several major cities, and a large number of people have begun to call for the collapse of the Iranian regime and “dictatorship”. The death of the person!” slogan.
What has happened since mid-July is more and more like a repeat of what happened in 2017, 2018, and 2019, when protests against economic difficulties and high oil prices eventually erupted into a massive uprising against the country’s dictatorship and theocratic regime . Was violently suppressed. With the new steel president Ebram Ressi set to take office, the bigger question is whether the latest shock of popular domestic anger is sufficient to shake the foundations of the increasingly emphasized Islamic system.
“The regime must be worried at this time because this confirms a continuing trend that seemingly non-political issues quickly become opportunities for people to express obvious political dissatisfaction, including outright anti-regime sentiment,” said Bernan Bin Talebro, A senior researcher at the Defense of Democracy Foundation, focusing on Iran.
The slogan of last week’s demonstrations was to be completely disappointed by the regime’s failure to meet the needs of ordinary Iranians, while continuing to inject billions of dollars into adventurous foreign policy, including radicalization for Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Gaza and other places. The agent provides funds and weapons and Yemen.
This is an echoing complaint WashingtonMy own complaints about the regime-complaints about the former Trump administration Attempts to put it in the lead by withdrawing from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement on the grounds that it has dangerously ignored it IranThe growing non-nuclear military arsenal and the support of its anti-US allies in the region.
This Biden Administration This argument is generally agreed, but it is believed that contact with the regime-while controlling the nuclear program-is a better way to achieve regional stability.Now, obviously to avoid IranThe rulers are at the most delicate stage because the negotiations to resume the nuclear agreement are at the most delicate stage. Biden Administration Officials are basically silent about the current wave of protests that is sweeping through Iran.
But critics say Washington By showing the Iranian people that the United States supports their struggle, it laid a mark for the new president and thus lost the key opportunity to defend freedom and democracy in the Middle East he Take office Tehran.
position IranForeign policy
Last week’s demonstration video Tehran As shown in other Iranian cities, the protesters not only chanted slogans against Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but also chanted “No Gaza, no Lebanon, I’m Iran“Obviously it refers to the regime’s active policy of supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza against Israel’s radical actions.
Al-Monitor, a neutral publication known for analyzing Middle Eastern affairs, pointed out in an article on Thursday that the slogan has reappeared in almost all anti-government protests. Iran Since the Green Revolution in 2009, a controversial election has almost overthrown the regime and triggered a series of popular protests. According to Al-Monitor, the information “is a sharp criticism of the Islamic Republic’s regional policy”.
Analysts say that its re-emergence now brings a thought-provoking turn, because this round of protests took place before Mr. Recy’s inauguration on August 5, and it is widely expected that he will promote a large-scale expansion—not a retreat— — IranAdventurist foreign policy.
Since June, the 60-year-old pastor of the Supreme Leader Khamenei and the Supreme Leader’s congressmen have used confrontational rhetoric with North Korea and the United States, since June was selected as an “acceptable” candidate in the severely stripped field.He also has a history of supporting violent suppression of dissent IranCritics have repeatedly cited his role in the mass execution of political prisoners in the country in 1988, while being promoted to power early in his career.
To that moment IranFor foreign policy, Mr. Raisi “adopted the same policy to support bad guys abroad, instead of spending money on infrastructure at home,” Norman Ruhr, A retired CIA officer who focused on the Middle East his Worked in a spy agency for 34 years.
Therefore, once Mr. Raisi takes office, the tension between the Iranian public and the Iranian regime is expected to intensify.
“He transferred Iranian resources to external agents, and his reliance on foreign policies that led to sanctions Iran And isolation Iran The influence from the international economy means that the conditions for the demonstrations that have already taken place will almost certainly continue to increase. ” Rolling, Now a non-resident researcher at the Belfer Center at Harvard University, told the Washington Times.
“This will be a decisive moment in the early days of Raisi’s administration, because he Dealing with these events will tell you a lot about how he Will satisfy the reasonable dissatisfaction of the Iranian people,” Rolling Say. “Currently, there is no evidence that the regime will change its policies to address these grievances. Instead, they may redouble their efforts on the policies that produced them.”
Not to mention, sir. Rolling It added that the Iranian regime “knows that the sparks may cause unrest, so it will devote significant resources to contain these protests and identify and neutralize their leadership.”
Fired at protesters
The Iranian leader was accused of openly shooting protesters in the southwestern province of Khuzestan last week. Human Rights Watch issued a statement on July 22, noting reports of three protesters being killed, and claiming that “the Iranian authorities seem to have used excessive force against the protesters in the southwest. Iran The protest was unable to obtain water. “
The Iranian authorities vehemently denied these reports, but an umbrella group composed of Iranian dissident groups in exile accused the protests of being more widespread and violent than the regime acknowledged.
National Resistance Council IranCiting domestic sources, protests broke out in the capital and dozens of Iranian cities. At least 12 demonstrators were killed by the police and dozens of people were arrested in Khuzestan and other places.
The Associated Press reported that dozens of Iranians participated in the demonstration. Tehran On July 26, an online video was quoted showing protesters marching along Jomhuri Islami Avenue (“Islamic Republic Avenue” in Persian) and called on the police to support them. Although the protest was peaceful, the news agency reported that several demonstrators chanted: “Death to the dictator!”
The US State Department issued a statement on Wednesday, citing “disturbing reports that security forces opened fire on protesters, causing many deaths.”
“We condemn the use of violence against peaceful protesters,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said in a statement, but did not explicitly accuse the Iranian regime of shooting demonstrators. US officials “urge the Iranian government to allow its citizens to exercise their rights to freedom of speech and free access to information, including through the Internet,” Mr. Price said.
The Iranian people “now pay attention not only to their unmet needs, but also to their unfulfilled desire to respect human rights-the rights that individuals all over the world are entitled to.”
Biden “Lost Opportunity”
When domestic unrest comes Biden Administration Seek “indirect” dialogue Iran Regarding the restoration of the 2015 nuclear agreement that former President Donald Trump denied in 2018. Iran The United States is required to abandon the severe economic sanctions Trump re-imposed when he withdrew from the agreement.
No agreement has been reached in the months of resuming negotiations. IranSupreme leader has called Washington “Stubborn” seeks to ask questions TehranMissile and regional influence during negotiations with other nuclear agreement parties.
Mr. Biden’s campaign was to restore the agreement he helped negotiate during the Obama administration, but critics say his national security team is looking for opportunities to stand up against it. Iran.
“If you don’t stand up to support the protests and help them, you just waited so long to talk about the situation, and when you talk about it, you behave plainly. Opportunity. Two things can and should be consistent,” Mr. said. Ben Talebro.
“The Iranian protesters are actually grabbing the third railroad track with both hands, putting the regime in their [sights], And this not only happened when the new hardline government came to power TehranAnd at some point Washington Remain relatively silent about the protests,” he Say. “Washington Hardly noticed the growing gap between the state and society Iran. “
gentlemen. Ben Talebro Added Biden AdministrationThe method is still “nuclear-centric”, basically ignoring the protests of the people, “excessive attention to the nuclear issue, may be exchanged for American influence by lifting the sanctions on the regime.”
he think Biden Administration A “targeted sanctions campaign” should be proposed to deal with the current repression Iran -A movement that transcends the highest leadership of the regime and aims to impose sanctions “against the political, judicial, or security forces in specific Iranian cities where violent suppression has occurred.”
“This will show solidarity with the Iranian people,” he said. Ben Talebro Say and add Biden Administration It should also “establish some kind of public and private groups to ensure that Iranians have the communication technology needed to communicate with each other and share information about the uprising with foreign audiences.”
gentlemen. Rolling Generally agreed, but said that the Iranian regime now has more responsibilities than anyone else, and TehranThe recent action is just to confirm Trump administrationThe argument is that the regime is only interested in confrontation with the United States and its regional allies.
“The storyline you see is that the Iranian people have reasonable dissatisfaction and reject their government’s regional adventurism, but the Iranian government has not made any changes,” he Say.