Joe Biden faces a global crisis into 2022

Thousands of Russian troops have assembled on the Ukrainian border, raising concerns that a war might be about to break out in Eastern Europe, and the United States-China Under warnings from all sides, tensions soared at the same time Beijing The United States will pay an “unbearable price” for supporting Taiwan.

These are just two of the many foreign policy problems facing the United States Biden Administration In early 2022.

The complete list is much longer: Taliban-controlled Afghanistan is shaky in the continuing turmoil caused by the disastrous U.S. military withdrawal; hope for something new Iran Despite the difficult diplomatic push of the United States and its European allies, the nuclear agreement is quickly fading; efforts to end North Korea’s nuclear program seem to have stalled; and, in Africa, Islamic terrorism is on the rise, raising concerns that the continent may become Attack the hotbeds of the West.

From Asia to the Middle East, the president faces many of the most daunting national security challenges Biden‘S plate just seems to become more urgent his In his first year in office, critics accused the president and his The inner circle messed up several key decisions and irreparably damaged the credibility of the United States abroad.

Government officials strongly opposed this description, believing that the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan will ultimately benefit the United States, as will the end of the formal combat operations in Iraq.

gentlemen. Biden and his Supporters also pointed out that after four years of hostility under the former president, tensions with NATO are easing. trump card, Claiming that major positive steps are now being taken in the wider U.S.-Europe alliance.

This administrative Also pointed out the important role played by U.S. officials at the 2021 Global Climate Change Summit and the recent Virtual Summit of Democracies White house The conference was created and organized to counter the growing authoritarianism around the world-saying that these two conferences are key steps in international cooperation in the 21st century, and that the United States willtrump card era.

At the same time, the official said White house An updated defense strategy, a broad new Indo-Pacific strategy, and other key policy documents that will guide Trump are being developed. BidenThe next three years on the world stage.

Immediate threat

although administrativeAnalysts said he worked hard to maintain long-term calm. Biden The next few weeks face an immediate crisis: the prospect of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The President spoke with his Russian President Vladimir Putin tried to lower the temperature to prevent the Russian army from taking more Ukrainian territory by force like it did in Crimea in 2014. White house The official emphasized, sir. Biden They still believe that diplomacy can prevent conflicts, but they also threatened to adopt economic sanctions and other measures if Russia invaded.

“One is a diplomatic approach that leads to a easing of the situation, and the other focuses more on deterrence, including if Russia chooses to further invade Ukraine, it will bring serious costs and consequences,” White house The relevant person in charge told reporters in the background.

The Kremlin asked the United States and Europe to make concessions—such as promising NATO not to expand eastward to include Ukraine or Georgia—to ease the situation.

Experts say that the gunpowder keg on the border between Russia and Ukraine may be the most urgent challenge facing Trump. Biden In the new year, there are few good choices.

Biden Here is a win-win situation. In areas far from the United States, right next to Russia, people are not very interested in fighting in areas far away from the United States. Sending more weapons to Kiev will not make the balance of power sufficient to prevent Russia’s limited offensive,” Stephen M. Walter (Stephen M. Walter) M. Walt), Professor of International Relations at Harvard University, and recently wrote for foreign policy.

On the other hand, if Afghanistan collapses in 2022, the president’s legacy may suffer a major blow-many analysts believe this is increasingly likely to happen.

Although there are obvious warning signs that the Taliban are ready to quickly take over the country, Mr. Biden After 20 years of war, the withdrawal of all U.S. troops began last summer. The chaotic and bloody U.S.-led Kabul airlift remains the president’s most enduring foreign policy image in his first year.

But with the Taliban now regaining full control, the country is facing a large-scale humanitarian crisis.This administrative Efforts have been made to strike a balance between providing as much food, medicine and financial assistance as possible to Afghan civilians, while still refusing to recognize the militant Islamic Taliban as a legitimate governing body.

The situation on the ground seems untenable. If Afghanistan collapses, the country will almost certainly become the center of Islamic extremist terrorism again.

Atlantic Council analysts Matthew Burrows and Robert Manning wrote in a recent 2022 forecast: “Afghanistan is going through an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, and there may be a national collapse in 2022.” “The Taliban is moving. Competing with hostile jihadist groups such as the Islamic State has increased the risk of increased terrorist activities around the world-including possible attacks on the interests of the United States and Russia and Russia. China. “

Diplomacy first

In terms of broader foreign policy, sir. Biden Faced with how best to deal with the increasingly powerful and aggressive long-term high-risk issues China.

Just this week, senior Chinese officials warned of US political and military support for Taiwan. China Think of it as a separate province. According to Reuters, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that by supporting the Taiwan military, “the United States not only puts Taiwan in an extremely dangerous situation, but also makes the United States pay an unbearable price.”

This administrative Trying to walk a tightrope China, Cooperating on issues such as climate change, while disagreeing on China’s military expansion in the South China Sea, BeijingAlleged rampant human rights violations and theft of American intellectual property by the Chinese Communist Party.

These and other factors lead to Mr. Biden Announced a diplomatic boycott of the upcoming Winter Olympics BeijingAustralia, Canada, and the United Kingdom also joined the boycott, but failed to gain other support.

gentlemen. Biden And the Pentagon leaders are also preparing China There will be more major weapon tests in 2022. Just like last summer, it suddenly launched a sophisticated hypersonic weapon system that circles the world and can carry nuclear warheads.

In this context, US officials are trying to unite the Pacific allies to support their cause and are pushing for an economic alternative. ChinaLarge-scale economic investment in various parts of the world as part of the containment plan ChinaGrowing power.

“We will build closer ties inside and outside the region. We will deepen our treaty alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and Thailand,” Secretary of State Anthony Brinken gave an important speech on the Indo-Pacific region earlier this month Said in. “For a long time, these bonds have laid the foundation for peace, security and prosperity in the region. We will also promote greater cooperation among these allies.”

“We will find ways to connect our allies with our partners, just as we did by revitalizing the Group of Four,” said Mr. Brinken, referring to the pro-democracy of the United States with Japan, Australia and India. alliance.

Although they disagree on many issues, the United States and China May stand on the same side of the negotiating table and try to reach a new nuclear agreement with them Iran This will restrict the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program in exchange for some economic sanctions relief.

Return the U.S. to Iran Nuclear Agreement-the official name is the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan, or JCPOA, trump card Withdrawal in 2018-was a key foreign policy priority for Trump at first. Biden.
But negotiations have made little progress in the past year, and the voices of government officials have been particularly pessimistic in recent weeks.

White house For example, National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan admitted in December last year that negotiations were “not going well”.

at the same time, Iran Continue to provoke. In recent days, the Iranian military launched a rocket that allegedly sent research payloads into space. Some analysts said, Biden This launch should be viewed as directly related to the nuclear issue and prove that Tehran is advancing a dangerous weapons program.

“This Biden Administration The connective organization between these events should not be missed,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior researcher at the Think Tank Foundation for Defense of Democracy. “Tehran not only intends to build influence in the missile, military, and nuclear fields, but also intends to build new capabilities. “



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