Fidelity experts say why Bitcoin may be far below $100,000

After a brief decline in the price of Bitcoin, the bulls regained control. The first cryptocurrency transaction price calculated by market capitalization exceeded 57,000 USD, and the profit was 2.5% and 11.1% on the daily and weekly charts, respectively.

BTC rebounded on the daily chart.Source: BTCUSD transaction view

The market is generally bullish because operators and traders expect Bitcoin to achieve its historical performance. As the end of the year approaches, the price of BTC usually tends to rise.

Related Reading | Bitcoin price prepares to return to RSI “bull zone”

Bitcoin’s trading price is less than US$10,000 from the all-time high of US$64,870. If, as Fidelity Jurrien Timmer’s macro director said in a report, it may enter uncharted territory. interview Together with CNBC, short-term holding of FOMO into BTC. These investors are those who have only held BTC in the past 3 months.

As shown in the figure below, the “momentum chaser” currently only holds 15% of the total BTC supply. In order for Bitcoin to reach new highs, this indicator must be higher than 20%.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Jurrien Timmer via Twitter

In this sense, Tey defaults to the lack of “excessiveness” in Bitcoin’s current upward trend, which may indicate that the current price trend has a certain degree of stability and sustainability. Unlike the previous rally, this time Bitcoin seems to get rid of the influence of “speculators,” as Timer said.

However, some traders may find Timer’s forecast disappointing because he believes that the benchmark cryptocurrency is far from reaching the major psychological barrier of $100,000.

Related Reading | Bitcoin’s short-term supply hits a record low

When the expert checked the Bitcoin/Golden ratio to analyze the supply and demand model of BTC, he found the following:

So is Bitcoin heading towards new highs? I know it’s best not to make bold price predictions, but I will notice that the next (and last) time my supply and demand models intersect is about $100,000 in 2023 or 2024.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Jurrien Timmer via Twitter

Bitcoin is far from peaking, bulls step on the accelerator

On the other hand, analyst Allen Au checked the top indicator of the Bitcoin Pi cycle to determine whether the cryptocurrency has entered a bearish phase. This indicator has always accurately predicted the top of the market.

As explained by the analyst, it uses the 111-day simple moving average and 250-day simple moving average (SMA) of the bitcoin price. When the two were intertwined, operators began to suspect that BTC had reached its peak.

Related Reading | The accumulation pattern of Bitcoin whales shows strong bullish sentiment among top holders

Unlike Timmer, the model predicts that the Bitcoin price will exceed the $300,000 mark by the end of 2021. As the analyst clarified, Bitcoin needs to go beyond the previous bullish cycle to make the indicator accurate:

What I am showing is not to invalidate the top indicator of the Pi period or to agree to the existence of an extended period. The simulation results show that unless BTC is now in a super cycle, Pi Cycle Top will miss the cycle peak of BTC if it occurs in December 2021.

Bitcoin BTCUSD
Source: Allen Au via Twitter

In the scenario proposed by Au, if the exact price prediction of BTC is not taken into consideration, the cryptocurrency will trend upwards at least before reaching a potential peak in 2022.

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