Expand the quadrilateral?Openness is seen as promoting the democratic alliance against China

America strengthens alliance with democracy Japan, Australia and India As other countries seek ways to counter aggression, there is room for growth China Former senior US officials and regional experts said on Tuesday that they aspire to dominate Asia and beyond in the 21st century.

At the “Washington Briefing”, a monthly forum hosted by the Washington Times Foundation, analysts studied the possibility of an informal four-nation alliance-known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, and more often as the “Four Nations Security Dialogue.” quadrilateral“-Can be expanded to include countries, such as South Korea, A participant of strategic importance in the Pacific region.

Although quadrilateral Has shaped itself as a regional balance ChinaCommunist regime, pure economic power Beijing And the attractiveness of its market makes calculations very complicated South Korea And other countries that are still close allies of the United States but are closely related to the United States economically China.

Potential economic cost South Korea Join publicly quadrilateral And anger Beijing, Some critics believe that more than any benefit Seoul Will reap.

But regional experts argued on Tuesday that although the United States and its quadrilateral Partners should not pressure publicly South Korea, They must make it clear that the door to expansion is open quadrilateral. This growth will become even more important because ChinaThe economic power and military presence of China has expanded to all parts of the world.

“In college football, Big 10 has 14 teams and Big 12 has 10 teams. There is nothing to say quadrilateral There must be only four teams,” said former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and retired admiral Harry Harris. South Korea.

“No guard quadrilateral. No one of us or a certain country says you can become a member, you can’t become a member,” he said at the event on Tuesday. “They have to decide for themselves whether they have [more members]The United States is not the gatekeeper here, nor is Australia. Japan or India. “

Harris and other analysts emphasized, quadrilateral, Despite being constructed as a kind of containing ChinaIt is not a military alliance, nor is it a common defense security organization like NATO.They said that this distinction is very important, in evaluating quadrilateral Can or cannot be done in terms of competition and potential conflicts China.

the member of quadrilateral Will not necessarily act in concert if China For example, a military invasion of Taiwan was launched.Some analysts believe that the most serious problem surrounding this problem quadrilateralSolidarity Center India.

IndiaReally, it may be the weakest link in this arrangement,” said Alexander Mansurov, a professor at the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University.

“Rely on India inside quadrilateral Arrangement, I want to know if this is a bit wishful thinking or if we are here to surpass ourselves,” he said at a virtual event on Tuesday, hosted by veteran diplomat Christopher Hill, who is also a former U.S. ambassador to China South Korea.

Admiral Harris opposed this view India Is the weakest link.But he admits India Should be regarded as “not a security ally of the United States”, unlike Australia and Japan, The two long-term security partners of the United States in the region.

China Trying to split

For its part, China Try to feed the differences in the team quadrilateral, Especially in the U.S. and India.

“if India To choose an ally, that is China First of all, it is not the United States, because this conforms to the laws of economic development under globalization and conforms to the interests of the two peoples. “December 26th, the United States ChinaThe state-run Global Times.

Although the overall goals are consistent, there are other obvious differences between the two quadrilateral State-even potential members, for example South Korea ——About how to deal with the sensitive political topics involved ChinaFor example, the United States and Australia announced a diplomatic boycott of the upcoming Winter Olympics at the end of last year. BeijingThese countries, as well as Canada and the United Kingdom, stated that they would not send diplomats or other official government representatives to participate in the Olympics to protest what they said ChinaHuman rights violations.

but India Haven’t joined yet. Japan Last month quietly hinted that its government officials would not go Beijing, Although Tokyo is careful not to call this decision a boycott.

South Korea Also avoids diplomatic boycott, probably because it’s China, This consideration lingers in many Seoul‘S decision and Beijing.

About a quarter of South Korea’s exports go to China, in progress SeoulTop trading partner. And since 2005, China Has directly invested more than 9 billion U.S. dollars South Korea, According to data compiled by the China Global Investment Tracker of the American Enterprise Institute.

These and other factors will definitely be South Korea Finally decided to join quadrilateral.

“This is South Koreadecision.This is a very important decision South Korea,” former CIA official and long-time U.S. diplomatic adviser Joseph De Trani said at the event on Tuesday. “They are close allies of the United States… We are here as a team. So, this is very important.But respect [South Korea‘s] Sovereignty and so on, they must make a decision. “

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