The 2022 bear market is brutal as more than $2 trillion worth of value has been wiped out of the crypto economy. In addition to the record loss of value, the crypto winter has also managed to shatter many popular Bitcoin price models, such as the rainbow price chart and Plan B’s infamous stock-to-flow model. Additionally, the well-known power-law corridor model or logarithmic growth plot has also broken out since May 11, 2022, and deviates below the lower bound by about 86 days.
Deviating from the norm: Bitcoin bear market in 2022 shatters some of the most popular price models
Over the years, crypto traders have used tools, charts and models to predict the future value of Bitcoin (bitcoin) and other popular digital assets. Bitcoin.com news at many occasions And in 2021, the S2F model is quite accurate until the end of November.
Additionally, many Bitcoin traders rely on other charts and price models such as golden ratio multiplierthe Fibonacci sequence, the rainbow model, and logarithmic growth curve. In the last quarter of 2021, Bitcoin traders expected bitcoin Reach $100,000 per coin by the end of the year.
September 2021, when bitcoin Will Clemente, chief insights analyst at Blockware Solutions, tweeted about a price between $45,000 and $50,000. new price model He calls it an “illiquid supply layer.”At the time, Clemente said the model combined Glassnode’s illiquid supply data with Plan B’s S2F model, and said it created a bitcoinreal-time scarcity.
Clement’s bottom forecast was $39,000, and analysts’ illiquid supply bottom model was broken over time. Even after Plan B’s S2F”worst case“The forecast at the end of November was biased, and the pseudonymous analyst Say He believes the price of Bitcoin is still “heading towards $100,000.”
None of these bold predictions came to fruition, and at the start of the crypto bear market, these types of price models public ridicule and condemn Many in the crypto community. Illiquid Supply Floor is shaky, S2F goes bankrupt, people make fun of it “Rainbow” price indicator.
I created a new improved model for the rainbow graph pic.twitter.com/zgjbqQtOb1
— LevelsDennis.lens (@levelsdennis) June 19, 2022
The popular power-law corridor model has broken the norm for 86 days in a row
Also, since May 11, 2022, one of the most popular Bitcoin price models, the power-law corridor model or the logarithmic growth graph, has also been broken.This chart is favored because bitcoinThe price schedule can be found from Logarithmic Perspective. In fact, a Logarithmic Price Chart One of the most popular technical analysis of cryptocurrencies and traditional finance in the world.
Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve charts are hosted on crypto portals such as lookintobitcoin.com and coinglass.com. The current deviation is unusual because bitcoinBefore 2022, the company’s price has only broken below the lower track twice in its history. The first deviation occurred in October 2010, and the second most significant deviation occurred on March 11, 2020.
March 11, 2020, also known as “Black Thursday,” was an interesting day for every asset on the planet as financial markets roiled across the board. then, bitcoin fell below the $4,000 range, And the movement on the logarithmic growth graph is below the low development line.
This particular event didn’t last long as global markets rebounded from the initial Covid-19 scare, followed by a bull run almost immediately. The price of Bitcoin surged to the $64,000 region in April 2021 and moved above that range to $69,000 on November 10, 2021.
Nine months later, Bitcoin’s (bitcoin) is down 66% from its all-time high of $69,000 and the popular and often reliable logarithmic growth curve model has been broken for 86 straight days.although bitcoin Having seen the first bear market rally, prices still have some way to go back to the lower track of the power-law corridor.
For this to be the case now, the price needs to be slightly above the $35,000 range.The price of Bitcoin has never broken below the low line for so long, which is unusual when looking at it bitcoin13-year price cycle. Breakouts indicate that markets often follow certain mathematical laws, patterns and models, but these types of technical approaches are not always correct.
For now, the latest bear market rally and other factors suggest that there is a good chance that this particular crypto winter has bottomed, but with similar charts and signals broken in the past, it means that no one can really guarantee that a bottom has been hit in the crypto market end. exist.
What do you think of all the Bitcoin price models that have been broken in the past? Let us know your thoughts on this topic in the comments section below.
Image Source: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons, lookintobitcoin.com, Twitter, bitcoinwisdom.io,
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