President Biden will try to persuade Russia’s Vladimir Putin in a call on Tuesday that the cost of invading Ukraine will be higher than any cost he has faced in the past.
Driving news: Biden spoke with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom tonight on Ukraine, while Secretary of State Tony Brinken called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to provide the United States with “unwavering support”.
Grasp the latest market trends and economic insights through Axios Markets. Free subscription
Game status: America Has been coordinating sanctions If Putin keeps going, it will trigger cooperation with European allies.
A senior government official told reporters on Monday that the United States is also preparing to provide additional military assistance to Ukraine and Ukraine. Increase its troop presenceNATO’s “East Wing” capabilities and military exercises in response to the Russian invasion.
Yes, but: Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the Moscow-based political analysis company R. Politik, stated that the United States has no intention of using force to defend Ukraine and Putin is “not afraid of sanctions at all.”
According to reports, the most severe sanctions under discussion will involve disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT international payment system. Stanovaya pointed out that the Central Bank of Russia has cooperated with the Bank of Russia to prepare for this situation.
Big picture: The senior official informed reporters before Biden’s dialogue with Putin that Russia has deployed about 94,000 soldiers to various locations near the border and is “intensifying its plans to take major military operations against Ukraine.”
The White House also warned that the Kremlin is launching false propaganda activities against Ukraine, which may be an excuse to blame any military conflicts on Kiev.
“We don’t know whether President Putin has already made a decision on Ukraine’s further military upgrades. But we know that if he decides to do so, he will be able to carry out such upgrades,” the official said.
flashback: This is the second time an imminent crisis has triggered high-profile conversations with Putin-the first time June Geneva SummitThe government had hoped to put Russia in a secondary position, avoid escalation, and focus on China.
the other side: Putin set his own red line before the conference call, including NATO’s possible deployment of offensive missile systems on Ukrainian territory.
He is also seeking legally binding guarantees that NATO will not expand eastward, including expansion into Ukraine.
In addition, Moscow opposes NATO’s exercises near the Russian border and increased cooperation between the alliance and Ukraine.
Zelensky visited the front lines of the brewing conflict between Ukraine and Russia-backed separatists today, and issued a statement stating that the Ukrainian army is prepared to “frustrate any conquest plan by the enemy.”
Reality check: It seems unlikely that NATO will invite Ukraine to join anytime soon, nor is it possible to guarantee that it will never join.
What to see: Dmitry Trenin said: “I think Russia is engaged in other forms of diplomacy…. “They will not listen to my plea, they will not listen to my diplomatic note, they will only pay attention My army moves.'” Carnegie Moscow.
Trenin believes that the invasion is unlikely, not because of the threat of sanctions, but because of high military costs.
However, Stanovaya hopes that Putin will issue an “ultimatum” to Biden. She said that if the United States and its allies do not make serious contacts on the security assurances he expects by early next year, “he will go to war.”
She added: “I have never seen him feel so strong, arrogant, confident, and ready to go further than we thought.”
More from Axios: Sign up to get the latest market trends from Axios Markets. Free subscription