As early as March 2020, those in Bitcoin halving Due to the panic at the beginning of the COVID pandemic and the subsequent lockdown, the market sell-off on Black Thursday caught them off guard.
With the new Omicron strain making headlines and reconsidering the blockade, will the cryptocurrency market face another dangerous macro storm and catastrophic collapse?
Omicron & the return of the black swan trend line
According to Wikipedia, The black swan is “an unexpected event with a major impact, and often improperly rationalize the benefits afterwards.”
Black Thursday in March 2020 falls into this category. COVID is coming, the market panic, Bitcoin plummets to a low of $3,800. It turned out that this was a huge overreaction.
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Although the incident has a “surprise” factor, and no one has seen the arrival of COVID, technical analysis proves that these black swan events Can predict a point. But what if two black swan events happened because they touched the same trend line? Will these really be regarded as black swan events?
Given the recent Omicron pressure news and related panic, as well as the fact that the Bitcoin price is indeed opposite to the trend line, this is precisely what is at risk Used to predict the final goal of Black Thursday To dollars.
Could another black swan arrive with this trend line? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Why another Bitcoin Black Thursday is unlikely
The above chart shows that Bitcoin price is rejected by the same trend line COVID correctionThe move was so drastic and intense that it caused the opposite rebound, bringing the cryptocurrency to more than $65,000 per coin.
As the rebound of such events has shown, the same serious Bitcoin sell-off is not necessarily a bad thing. However, despite the dangerous macro landscape and the stock market sinking, the situation for top cryptocurrencies is quite different this time.
The conditions were very different then versus now | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
On the one hand, the arrow depicts two rejections of resistance before 2019, and the second time (marked in red) failed to break through YimuyunThe resistance level goes back to the beginning of the bear market, which is why the rejection of Black Thursday was particularly strong. At the same time, the current price trend seems to indicate that the resistance level has been turned into a support level.
The blue path outlines expectations Elliott Wave Dynamic Wave, Three upward pushes and two adjustment waves. According to the Elliott wave theory, the first wave shows that assets are still alive, but market participants are unwilling to believe that a bull market has begun.
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Due to the remaining bearish sentiment, before the start of wave 3, wave 2 erased most of the progress of wave 1.Re-testing the lows of the first wave at the climax of the second wave, market participants are more confident Blooming bull trend, Which is why the third wave is often the longest and strongest. EWT refers to this as wave “expansion”.
Wave 4 cannot enter the path of wave 1 and tends to move laterally.This shows that it is Unlikely to see another major adjustment Just like what happened on Black Thursday in 2020. Whenever the fourth wave officially ends, regardless of whether there is controversy or not, the goal of $100,000 per token may still appear at the peak of the fifth wave.
-Tony “Bull” Spilotro (@tonyspilotroBTC) December 2, 2021
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Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com