Bitcoin (Bitcoin) Has started a new week, and the bull market in the fourth quarter has been a rare disappointment-failing to break the previous support.
After a promising weekend, BTC/USD was finally rejected twice at a price of $60,000, and as the market momentum weakened, it has since fallen below $57,000.
The stakes are high: some people believe that the sky-high Bitcoin price target can still be reached by the end of this month, while others believe that this bull market will take longer than previous bull markets.
Compared with recent months and past bull market years, November looks more likely to break with tradition and under-delivery-traders and analysts are preparing for a confusing but potentially interesting monthly close.
Cointelegraph studied five factors that may affect the price trend of BTC, which may be formed in the last week of the stressful “Moonvember”.
60,000 USD resistance
For most of the weekend, the analyst’s sentiment was simple: “It could be worse.”
After hitting a five-week low of US$55,650, BTC/USD managed to regain some of its lost ground and even “gaped higher” on Saturday to fluctuate to US$60,000.
This was ultimately unsuccessful, but on Sunday saw further attempts, Bitcoin enjoyed a few minutes in the $60,000 range, and then was resolutely rejected, causing the market to plunge again.
At the time of writing this article on Monday, $57,000 is forming a focus, and the obvious impetus is that the once solid support has turned into resistance.
Popular trader Pentoshi summed up his mood, Reiterate He hopes to recover $61,000 as support for the bullish continuation.
Bitcoin Why is 61k important?
Bc supports bc and resistance comes. Therefore, I am now focusing on this field.
This is another way of looking at it.
What do i want? I want more than 61k. Does the market care about what we want?
$61,000 returned to the bull pic.twitter.com/egMRfuLxfV
— Pentoshi will not call you. Hate Dm. DM is a scam (@Pentosh1) November 22, 2021
So far, November 2021 has brought negative returns of -6.5% for coin holders, making it a Only three This November in Bitcoin’s history will not yield revenue.
As Cointelegraph ReportThe price trend in other years has changed, especially in 2020, when BTC/USD rose by nearly 43% in November.
Nevertheless, the downturn on Sunday did fill the gap in the latest CME futures created on Friday, and this reappears Become a feature Spot price trends this month.
For traders and analysts Crypto Ed, this is needed to increase the possibility of a new rise in the new week.
“Waiting for tonight’s other leg to fill CME and rise again in the next few days,” he said Said In a Twitter comment on Sunday.
Although Bitcoin corrections are frustrating at their least popular, not everyone is surprised or worried.
A shorter time frame can portray a completely different market health than a longer time frame, and commentators this week are focusing on supporting the enduring bull market argument.
“If in doubt, please narrow it down”-Bitcoin is still on the right track compared to its performance after the block subsidy halved in the previous two years.
“So far, the correction structure of BTC 8H is very similar,” analyst TechDev comfirmed Sunday.
“Almost four years apart. Since July, 2021 will continue to be 5-8 days later than 2017.”
The data mentioned by TechDev shows that Bitcoin not only repeated the performance of 2017 this year, but also almost copied the timetable of each stage of its bull market.
If this situation continues, the expected top phase of blow-off should also occur—except this time, a Order of magnitude higher More than USD 20,000 in 2017.
A chart further shows how Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) copied and pasted its 2017 performance, especially in November.
Usually, the top of a bull market cycle is accompanied by an RSI reading of 90 or higher, which is far from the current reading in the lower time frame.
Increase in rematch funding of $60,000
Despite losing the battle of $60,000, the process of trying to withdraw from a lower level had an unwelcome effect on the derivatives market, and traders once again increased their leverage.
After effectively “reset” to neutral during last week’s low, the funding rate rose again.
Too optimistic, as in the case of Bybit, OKEx and other companies at the time of writing, indicates that there is a bullish bias—expecting further increases.
This usually produces undesirable results, because the price slump starts to disintegrate a large number of positions, and the snowball effect further depresses prices.
So far Liquidation However, in the past 24 hours, the $70 million and $219 million in the Bitcoin and crypto markets have remained silent.
Blogger 52skew concluded on Twitter on Monday: “The liquidation volume is very small, so the question is which side of the market ran this week,” and pointed out what happened when the $60,000 was retested.
The market is hungry for liquidity, which reduces the volume of buying and selling.
(Reflecting that most market participants are waiting for confirmation or hedging)
-Δ (@ 52kskew) November 22, 2021
Open position At the same time, Bitcoin futures have yet to break through the all-time high set before the November 10 drop.
U.S. dollar is the protagonist of the show
In the macro market, nervousness about coronavirus measures—and the protests against them—continues to show mixed results.
As inflation has become the focus of attention, the focus of discussion now turns to the Fed will accelerate the pace of asset purchases next month.
Jason Schenker, president and chief economist of Prestige Economics, a forecasting agency, said: “If this idea is confirmed and repeatedly emphasized, then the probability that the pace of reduction announced in December will be faster than the pace announced in early November will increase.” Tell Bloomberg.
However, it is the U.S. dollar that stole the limelight this week.
According to data from the US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), the US dollar has broken through long-term resistance this month and reached its highest level since July 2020.
Usually, significant DXY gains have the opposite effect on Bitcoin, which struggled during this period. November was no exception, as the price of DXY swaps soared and remained at 96.
“What’s the problem? The sentiment in the foreign exchange sector has become very extreme,” analyst Helene Meisler (Helene Meisler) warn In the weekend.
On the contrary, the shift of abnormally fluctuating DXY will provide a negative correlation test with BTC.
Emotions say “wait and see”
Regarding the topic of market sentiment, in cryptocurrencies, investors take a wait-and-see attitude.
Latest reading from Crypto Fear and Greed Index Shows that despite short-term price behavior, the market is actually completely neutral.
At 50/100, fear and greed are right in the middle of their possible range, highlighting the lack of “extreme” emotions.
This may be good for Bitcoin, the shock of last week has driven Emotions returned to the realm of “fear”, which has now recovered.
Comparison with traditional markets Fear and Greed Index And the dichotomy is obvious: “Extreme greed” was the characteristic of the latter in the previous trading day, but now, “greed” still exists.